THE POWER OF JUDGMENT IN INVESTMENT BANKING

The power to arrive at a wise decision, or judgment, is crucial, especially in investment banking, which is much more than just a numbers game. Refining one’s judgment is imperative for both individual advancement and the overall success of the firm.

Judgment is part science, part art, often influenced by personal inclinations, making it challenging to fully grasp. Despite being a nuanced and iterative process, clients primarily remember the outcomes of a banker’s judgment, emphasizing its pivotal role in shaping perceptions and outcomes.

Here are several strategies to enhance the ability to improve one’s judgment:

• Leverage past experiences. Past experiences provide valuable insights and help us move beyond relying solely on theoretical reasoning.

• Assess the likelihood of outcomes. After reaching a specific conclusion, it’s crucial to question its likelihood by asking, “Is this likely?” If the outcome seems unlikely, it doesn’t necessarily invalidate your judgment. It does, however, warrant thorough scrutiny to ensure accuracy.

• Consider alternative options. There is usually more than one way to serve the client; a given set of facts and circumstances can lead to different conclusions. Therefore, it’s essential to evaluate your judgment against various options before committing to one.

• Use time and planning. When you anticipate the need to make well-informed decisions ahead of time, you can allocate sufficient time for thoughtful consideration. The outcome? Better judgments.

• Develop the ability to recognize valuable judgment opportunities. Given that judgment improves with practice, it’s crucial to hone the skill (sensitivity) of identifying valuable judgment opportunities. They frequently arise during discussions with clients and colleagues. Cultivating good judgment is a continuous (disciplined) process of thought and action.

• Prioritize effectively. A critical aspect of judgment entails distinguishing between what is significant (signal) and what is not (noise). Further refinement lies in the ability to prioritize the elements being considered based on their importance.

• Ground judgments in facts. The strength of your judgment grows in tandem with the depth of factual understanding. Embrace all available facts — especially those that may challenge initial assumptions — to provide optimal solutions for clients.

• Seek feedback. Testing your judgment with trusted colleagues (or clients) can reveal opportunities for improvement. Every outstanding professional enjoys the challenge of assessing judgments. Feedback is gold.

Judgment is crucial to the health and wealth of an investment bank, influencing the quality of work, client relationships, individual bankers’ effectiveness, firm dynamics, and overall professional fulfillment.

GOLDMAN SACHS UNPLUGGED — BEYOND P&L

My investments include a large position in Goldman Sachs. Why? It’s really about what separates Goldman from the rest. Three words — Strong. Enduring. Principles. My investment in Goldman Sachs revolves around the firm’s rock-solid business principles; the foundation behind its long-term success and reputation.

Principles — codified experiences — are the standards that govern everything we do. They strongly impact daily practices and deliver a compass for actions taken and decisions to be made in an uncertain environment that is characterized by much dynamism. Principles can be seen as the nervous system of the firm. They provide energy to walk the talk. And under today’s challenging circumstances, it is the intangibles that count most toward ensuring enduring success.

When the environment and business grow more and more complex, structure, rules, procedures, and systems become progressively less effective as a device for unifying a firm or ensuring smooth teamwork (crucial in investment banking). Implementing the right principles — not just lip service platitudes — makes a firm great. The book “On Becoming Extraordinary — Decoding Goldman Sachs and other Star Professional Service Firms” argues — backed by extensive field research — that professional service firms (like Goldman) will be more successful when held together with this powerful glue.

‘Star’ or elite professional service firms have a powerful identity owing to their strong business principles. Such a set of principles fosters high levels of loyalty and motivation, providing the firm with structure and controls without the need for excessive formal rules and stifling procedures.

Adherence to sound principles is the hallmark of outstanding management. As an investor and hedge fund manager, you need to dig deep into this ‘soft’ topic with ‘hard’ P&L and competitive consequences. Unsound principles erode client trust and, in the long run, undermine a firm’s reputation and morale. And although principles are the building blocks of successful firms like Goldman Sachs, they are not the proverbial magic silver bullet. How they are used determines the results and makes a difference. Ultimately, that makes a respected firm prestigious.

The interesting thing about principles is that there is really nothing all that unique about them. In fact, they are universal and timeless. However, firms like Goldman Sachs are masters in applying them rigorously, consistently, and coherently. Principles need decisions followed by actions; otherwise, they are merely conceptual, looking great on paper or a tablet or smartphone screen. There is nothing revolutionary about getting into shape. If there is a magic formula, then that is it. Doing it, that is what matters.

More details on the effectiveness of Goldman Sachs’ business principles at www.pieterklaasjagersma.com/decoding-goldman-sachs.

RELIABILITY, CLIENTS, AND INVESTMENT BANKS

Reliability — the ability to perform the firm’s ‘promise to clients’ accurately, consistently, and timely — is the backbone of true professionalism. Every individual contributes to the firm’s reliability since more than one employee becomes involved in the service delivery process.

There is an uncompromising relationship between reliability and quality. Reliability is to quality what a key is to a locked door: indispensable. When an investment bank makes mistakes regularly, when it doesn’t keep its promises, clients lose confidence in the bank’s ability to do what it promises dependably, timely, and accurately. A lack of reliability means ‘game over’.

Clients frequently habituate (get used to) certain levels of service such that they are unaware of their true expectations regarding the service of the bank. They are more likely to habituate when the bank’s service delivery is highly reliable. It’s a tricky psychological process because violations of ‘habituated expectations’ can provoke dramatic client reactions. For an investment bank, it is important to identify the habituated expectations of clients of whom they may be unaware. In-depth client research delivers the answers.

Investment banks are supposed to be reliable; they are supposed to provide the service they promise to provide. The opportunity to go beyond what is expected by the client is dangerous. Exceeding the expectations of clients usually requires the element of surprise. Most clients, however, dislike surprises. Predictability is key. Predictability touches the very essence of what clients expect. The intangibility of the services of investment banks heightens clients’ sensitivity to predictability. That said, defining predictability in the context of specific client work is no easy feat.

Closely related to reliability is the delivery of ‘minimal’ quality, a threshold quality level. Clients demand (at least) ‘minimal’ (baseline) quality, so an investment bank needs to know what ‘minimal’ quality means for each client (again, no easy feat). Each client has a different opinion about this threshold quality level. Performing below this quality level means damaging the reputation of the bank. Clients are seriously disappointed if investment banks perform below their threshold quality level.

Reliability seems like a straightforward concept: you are either reliable or not. In practice, it becomes more complex because reliability can mean different things to different people. It hinges on both (national and business) culture and client perception — on their reflection of the specific experience (the performance per se). ‘Habituation’, ‘predictability’, and ‘threshold quality levels’ turn reliability into an even more elusive and complex business issue. Reliability is the ultimate ‘red flag’ business concept, especially in investment banking.